Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...

Impending Ice Age?

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Created by Flatty > 9 months ago, 21 Jan 2021
Flatty
QLD, 239 posts
21 Jan 2021 7:49PM
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I give up.

lotofwind
NSW, 6450 posts
21 Jan 2021 10:00PM
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I think you meant to post this on your twitter page.

decrepit
WA, 11829 posts
21 Jan 2021 8:57PM
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The fresh water from arctic melting, could stop the warm gulfstream current, so places that are warmed by that could get colder for a while.
A long way from saying a global ice age.

boofta
NSW, 179 posts
22 Jan 2021 8:45AM
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Yeah
heaven forbid that the global warming climate change religion/scare could be completely wrong

Brent in Qld
WA, 835 posts
22 Jan 2021 6:09AM
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Flatty said..


I give up.


Mate... never give up. There will always be new stuff learn & old stuff to revisit. Nothing in the visible world is immune to change, it's what makes life so bloody interesting.

Mr Milk
NSW, 2868 posts
22 Jan 2021 10:56AM
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Interview with Ian Plimmer, huh? On Sky After Dark, too.
Wasn't it Mark Twain who pointed out how hard it is to get a man to understand an idea when his income depends on him not understanding it?
That's how Bernardi and Plimmer make their money. Plimmer would have the same media profile as any other geologist if he wasn't banging the denialist drum. It gets him attention and dollars.

Flatty
QLD, 239 posts
22 Jan 2021 10:33AM
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Brent in Qld said..

Flatty said..


I give up.



Mate... never give up. There will always be new stuff learn & old stuff to revisit. Nothing in the visible world is immune to change, it's what makes life so bloody interesting.


Your right mate.

I think that bloke makes good points that the earth goes through cycles, and that some cycles are warmer and cooler. Although i would have to give him a google because i know better than believing someone because they were on the news.

Paradox
QLD, 1321 posts
25 Jan 2021 10:15AM
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Mr Milk said..
Wasn't it Mark Twain who pointed out how hard it is to get a man to understand an idea when his income depends on him not understanding it?


You know that works both ways right? There are far more climate scientists whose career depends on proving and supporting the AGW theory then not.....

Mr Milk
NSW, 2868 posts
25 Jan 2021 12:39PM
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That also means that there is more competition between them to provide better evidence. The best scientist gets promoted and respected by their peers. They put a lot of effort into finding problems with each others studies. That's "peer review"

boofta
NSW, 179 posts
25 Jan 2021 3:29PM
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peer review b/s
97% of scientists are on public payrolls
thats where the morons get their proof

Harrow
NSW, 4520 posts
25 Jan 2021 4:24PM
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boofta said..
peer review b/s

Also known as 'groupthink', and that's been peer-reviewed.

Plenty more where this came from:
www.researchgate.net/publication/340864585_Bias_and_Groupthink_in_Science's_Peer-Review_System

Brent in Qld
WA, 835 posts
25 Jan 2021 4:23PM
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Yeah, science has run its course. It's clearly not working in the 21st century, pretty much been downhill since the rise of Facebook. As we look to the future, we'd probably get better results for our species from astrologers, politicians or Instagram influencers.

Mr Milk
NSW, 2868 posts
26 Jan 2021 12:19AM
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Harrow said..


boofta said..
peer review b/s



Also known as 'groupthink', and that's been peer-reviewed.

Plenty more where this came from:
www.researchgate.net/publication/340864585_Bias_and_Groupthink_in_Science's_Peer-Review_System



Can maths be peer reviewed? 'Cause that's all we're talking about. Physics is maths. It can be mind boggling and hard to accept. Look at how the people with money and power dealt with Galileo and Copernicus. And that's easy maths.
Atmospheric physics is a bit more difficult, but it still comes down to a set of statistical calculations with many variables. You, Harrow, being an engineer, should understand this. When you designed that interconnector you didn't just say we'll string a wire from A to B. You did plenty of calculating to be sure that the power won't be out of phase or the wrong voltage when it reaches its destination.
I just glanced at that article and got the impression that the groupthink they were talking about is more at the human interactions end of science than at easily quantifiable stuff. The "art" of medicine, not physics questions like the evaluation of an engine and its exhaust system.
Which brings me to boofta. I'm assuming that you've got the normal basic understanding of motors that the average bloke has. You know that running too rich a fuel/air mixture will overheat and eventually damage a motor. Don't you think that might apply to the huge open cycle solar powered engine that the planet is?

Brent in Qld
WA, 835 posts
26 Jan 2021 6:35AM
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Harrow said..

boofta said..
peer review b/s


Also known as 'groupthink', and that's been peer-reviewed.

Plenty more where this came from:
www.researchgate.net/publication/340864585_Bias_and_Groupthink_in_Science's_Peer-Review_System


Groupthink is an issue when like minds get locked into a particular way of doing, thinking etc. without being challenged. The group will also refuse to consider alternatives or new info outside their knowledge base. This issue is not the sole domain of science, I'd suggest it's currently as great, if not a greater, problem within the wider population.

Although one opinion may not necessarily be truer than an other, there is consequence in acting on opinion and willfully ignoring fact. For better or worse, it is in the mix of our opinions, facts & consequences we each live our lives.

decrepit
WA, 11829 posts
26 Jan 2021 8:52AM
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Brent in Qld said. >>>>> Although one opinion may not necessarily be truer than an other, there is consequence in acting on opinion and willfully ignoring fact. For better or worse, it is in the mix of our opinions, facts & consequences we each live our lives.


Too true, but the knowledge of this can lead to procrastination, it can be hard to decide if our opinions are just group think without any bases in fact. And then you get judged for being indecisive.
I guess as somebody once said, "Life wasn't meant to be easy"

And these days with all the misinformation being spread, from all sorts of vested interests, it certainly isn't

Macroscien
QLD, 6791 posts
26 Jan 2021 2:13PM
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It is appear that we made whole circle :
from Global warming, to Climate Change then Ice Age.Most likely the truth is that matters left completely to their own devices will resolve without our intervention at all. No carbon taxes needed, special regulations, international conferences and scaremongering.
The economy by itself require us to switch to renewable energy as this is simply cheaper.Same will happen with electric vehicles: will become cheaper ,more practical and eventually self driving. Ideas such as carbon capture CO2 from atmosphere is another scam designed only to draw money for whole population and fill pockets of the few.By switching completely to renewable , all CO2 will be drawn for atmosphere due to growing population and agriculture food production.
Without constant supply we will be talking about CO2 deficit and needs to artificially suplement carbon dioxide in our atmosphere.
Most likely by importing those from planet Venus, which has abundant supply of CO2.This obviously require funding for rocket companies like SpaceX to bring those from Venus to Earth.


Paradox
QLD, 1321 posts
27 Jan 2021 9:51PM
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Mr Milk said..
That also means that there is more competition between them to provide better evidence. The best scientist gets promoted and respected by their peers. They put a lot of effort into finding problems with each others studies. That's "peer review"


Thats the worst reasoning I have ever heard, that just means they compete to pile on more and more rubbish on top the rubbish they have already produced. Groupthink as has been raised.

The effort goes into finding problems or otherwise tearing down any study that contradicts thier own line of research or favourite theory.

Australia has a very large problem in its research and scientific institutions in that they no longer follow the Scientific Method. There is very little or no duplication or third party checking of data and results. Paper on paper is put out now and immediately rushed to the press release with no thought to actually verifying the result through second or third repititions. Its mostly junk, people no longer believe what they are told because of the rubbish being produced.

Paradox
QLD, 1321 posts
27 Jan 2021 9:55PM
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Mr Milk said..
Can maths be peer reviewed? 'Cause that's all we're talking about. Physics is maths. It can be mind boggling and hard to accept. Look at how the people with money and power dealt with Galileo and Copernicus. And that's easy maths.
Atmospheric physics is a bit more difficult, but it still comes down to a set of statistical calculations with many variables. You, Harrow, being an engineer, should understand this. When you designed that interconnector you didn't just say we'll string a wire from A to B. You did plenty of calculating to be sure that the power won't be out of phase or the wrong voltage when it reaches its destination.
I just glanced at that article and got the impression that the groupthink they were talking about is more at the human interactions end of science than at easily quantifiable stuff. The "art" of medicine, not physics questions like the evaluation of an engine and its exhaust system.
Which brings me to boofta. I'm assuming that you've got the normal basic understanding of motors that the average bloke has. You know that running too rich a fuel/air mixture will overheat and eventually damage a motor. Don't you think that might apply to the huge open cycle solar powered engine that the planet is?



No, you can only break down a system into mathematical proof if you fully understand everything about it. Our Climate and atmosphere is a complex and chaotic system we have only the barest grasp of. It cannot be modelled even remotely accurately, let alone reduced to mathematical equations or solutions.

Paradox
QLD, 1321 posts
27 Jan 2021 10:15PM
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Except real observations show that the Arctic ice is currently tracking well above the last 8 years and Antarctica is tracking bang on the 1980 to 2010 median.

Studies can show anything if you cherry pick your data to tell the story..... even if they are peer reviewed.

Nine MSN is not the best source of data, try the actual science guys.....

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Mr Milk
NSW, 2868 posts
27 Jan 2021 11:17PM
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OK. Let's look at that argument.

We'll compare it with map making. We've got pretty good maps these days. GPS is accurate to within about a metre. A century ago I doubt that even the continents could be mapped within a kilometre.But even GPS is not perfect. Perfection would require that every subatomic particle be measured, at which point you get run over by Mr Heisenberg.

It's the same thing with geophysics. Models that were way off are getting refined. More computing power allows ever more variables to be included. Constant incremental improvement is how it works. You don't give up just because it's hard.

And a bump in arctic sea ice in one year doesn't, of itself, mean that the ice cover isn't on a downward trend.

But, mea culpa, it's quite possible that Flatty posted that video from SkyNews with the comment "I give up" with the intention of indicating his despair at how Murdoch and the fossil fuel lobby continue to stand against progress. It's hard to pick up sarcasm in forums sometimes

Paradox
QLD, 1321 posts
28 Jan 2021 9:36AM
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Mr Milk said..
We'll compare it with map making.


Our understanding of terrain and spacial geometry is advanced. It's also an easy concept with essentially few variables involved in measuring something with good accuracy that is essentially static. To compare that with a complex, chaotic constantly changing system, that is effected by a huge number of other complex and chaotic forcings is hardly relevent. Our accuracy in even measuring the various climate variables is horrible, let alone being able to model the system with any meaning.
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Mr Milk said..
And a bump in arctic sea ice in one year doesn't, of itself, mean that the ice cover isn't on a downward trend.


It's not a "bump", thats just the headlines you read. The data does not lie... the Antarctic has been static, there is no trend of declining ice at all in the Antarctic. Facts are facts, check the data.

The Arctic has been in a recent declining trend for sure. However it seems to have peaked back in 2013 and the trend seems to have stalled or is reversing. There was a similar trend back in the 40's, so it's not unprecendented.

What people don't see or is not reported is that even with the Arctic ice decline, decadal averages have not moved more than 20% away from the 1980 to 2010 average. Reports of imminent ice free Arctic and catastrophic ice loss are groundless, especially when the record summer minimums are usually balance with a high winter maximum.

Brent in Qld
WA, 835 posts
28 Jan 2021 8:33AM
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Symantics. In general, humans have a very bad perspective on time. Most only consider their own life, a generation or 5 maybe, possibly comprehend millenia. We understand the shifts in the climate over hundreds of millions of years, importantly for this discussion & considering the scale, thousands of years. Whether we are the cause, ice sheets are regressing/increasing naturally, etc... over 10-100years is somewhat irrelevant when looking at the cycle of ice ages. If the next cooling period results in a full on glacial period, historical data would indicate it's still some time away even as we currently approach a peak.






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Forums > General Discussion   Shooting the breeze...


"Impending Ice Age?" started by Flatty